Simulation scenario 3, CR phase

Setting description

Taxel therapies more effective in all the biomarker signatures

Simulations setting

PFS distributions

Treatment effects

By subgroup:

subtype	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
—-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
—+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
–+-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
–++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-+–	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-+-+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-++-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
-+++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+—	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+–+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+-+-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+-++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
++–	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
++-+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
+++-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
++++	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1

By signature:

signature	var	Other	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TP53- & AR-	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TP53+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
DRD+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1
TEfus+	param	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.037, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05	scale = 0.112, shape = 1.05
	summary	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 26.6, median = 19.1	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3	mean = 8.8, median = 6.3
	effect	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 3.03, hr = 0.31	af = 1, hr = 1	af = 1, hr = 1

Errors and power

graduation (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 2 333 0 0 TP53- & AR- 4 337 3 1 TP53+ 0 294 0 0 DRD+ 0 128 0 0 TEfus+ 0 250 0 0

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0.004 0.666 0.000 0.000 TP53- & AR- 0.008 0.674 0.006 0.002 TP53+ 0.000 0.588 0.000 0.000 DRD+ 0.000 0.256 0.000 0.000 TEfus+ 0.000 0.500 0.000 0.000

futility (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 103 0 81 60 TP53- & AR- 400 0 415 392 TP53+ 217 0 208 235 DRD+ 126 0 187 192 TEfus+ 206 0 222 206

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0.206 0 0.162 0.120 TP53- & AR- 0.800 0 0.830 0.784 TP53+ 0.434 0 0.416 0.470 DRD+ 0.252 0 0.374 0.384 TEfus+ 0.412 0 0.444 0.412

max sample size (counts and proportions):

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0 0 0 0 TP53- & AR- 13 10 18 26 TP53+ 21 43 22 20 DRD+ 0 0 0 0 TEfus+ 0 0 0 3

Hormone_therapies Taxel_therapies Carboplatin Niraparib all 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 TP53- & AR- 0.026 0.020 0.036 0.052 TP53+ 0.042 0.086 0.044 0.040 DRD+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 TEfus+ 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.006

Errors & power

The overall error was 0.338.
The corresponding errors separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies       Carboplatin         Niraparib 
            0.012             0.324             0.006             0.002 

The overall power was 0.666.
The corresponding power separate for the different treatments were:

Hormone_therapies   Taxel_therapies       Carboplatin         Niraparib 
            0.000             0.666             0.000             0.000 

Median results at the end of the trial

By signature:

signature	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	graduation	0	2	333	0	0
	futility	0	103	0	81	60
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	425 (347, 469)	156 (87, 240)	127 (39, 247)	170 (103, 254)	164 (99, 245)
	n_unique	395 (328, 436)	144 (80, 223)	118 (36, 235)	156 (97, 239)	152 (92, 230)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (25, 36)	23 (6, 36)	36 (31, 36)	36 (35, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	26 (6, 35)	14 (6, 29)	29 (20, 36)	29 (22, 35)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0 (0, 0)	1 (1, 1)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0.01)
	rate	0.075 (0.069, 0.081)	0.113 (0.102, 0.131)	0.036 (0.031, 0.042)	0.113 (0.102, 0.126)	0.113 (0.102, 0.127)
TP53- & AR-	graduation	0	4	337	3	1
	futility	0	400	0	415	392
	max_n	0	13	10	18	26
	n	168 (102, 203)	41 (26, 126)	30 (12, 105)	47 (26, 126)	49 (26, 132)
	n_unique	158 (94, 190)	38 (25, 118)	28 (12, 100)	43 (24, 119)	46 (24, 125)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	20 (9, 36)	18 (10, 36)	22 (13, 36)	23 (14, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	17 (8, 30)	12 (9, 25)	20 (13, 31)	20 (13, 31)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.02 (0, 0.12)	1 (0.95, 1)	0.02 (0, 0.12)	0.01 (0, 0.13)
	rate	0.075 (0.066, 0.085)	0.114 (0.098, 0.144)	0.036 (0.027, 0.047)	0.115 (0.098, 0.146)	0.115 (0.097, 0.148)
TP53+	graduation	0	0	294	0	0
	futility	0	217	0	208	235
	max_n	0	21	43	22	20
	n	198 (169, 220)	74 (29, 130)	52 (21, 150)	81 (36, 140)	75 (37, 134)
	n_unique	184 (157, 206)	68 (27, 122)	48 (19, 140)	75 (34, 131)	70 (34, 126)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (16, 36)	28 (10, 36)	36 (19, 36)	36 (18, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	24 (13, 34)	16 (9, 30)	24 (13, 35)	24 (15, 33)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.01 (0, 0.09)	1 (0.99, 1)	0.01 (0, 0.08)	0.01 (0, 0.1)
	rate	0.075 (0.067, 0.084)	0.115 (0.097, 0.145)	0.036 (0.029, 0.044)	0.114 (0.097, 0.137)	0.113 (0.097, 0.138)
DRD+	graduation	0	0	128	0	0
	futility	0	126	0	187	192
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	109 (89, 126)	48 (23, 75)	25 (4, 55)	55 (33, 80)	55 (33, 83)
	n_unique	101 (82, 117)	44 (22, 69)	23 (3, 52)	51 (30, 76)	51 (32, 78)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (26, 36)	36 (21, 36)	36 (20, 36)	36 (19, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	29 (21, 34)	24 (16, 33)	26 (15, 34)	25 (15, 33)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.03 (0, 0.24)	1 (0.8, 1)	0.02 (0, 0.19)	0.02 (0, 0.18)
	rate	0.075 (0.063, 0.089)	0.113 (0.095, 0.152)	0.036 (0.022, 0.056)	0.115 (0.095, 0.137)	0.115 (0.096, 0.142)
TEfus+	graduation	0	0	250	0	0
	futility	0	206	0	222	206
	max_n	0	0	0	0	3
	n	151 (127, 173)	59 (28, 97)	39 (16, 95)	64 (33, 104)	65 (34, 101)
	n_unique	140 (118, 160)	55 (26, 90)	37 (15, 88)	59 (31, 97)	60 (31, 94)
	time_trial	36 (36, 36)	36 (20, 36)	36 (12, 36)	36 (19, 36)	36 (21, 36)
	time_stop	NA (NA, NA)	25 (17, 35)	18 (10, 30)	26 (16, 35)	26 (17, 34)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.01 (0, 0.13)	1 (0.98, 1)	0.01 (0, 0.12)	0.01 (0, 0.12)
	rate	0.075 (0.065, 0.086)	0.116 (0.096, 0.149)	0.036 (0.027, 0.046)	0.115 (0.097, 0.139)	0.113 (0.097, 0.14)

By subgroup combinations:

subtype	var	Control	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
—-	graduation	0	421	472	420	396
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	13	9	18	26
	n	109 (67, 135)	24 (15, 81)	21 (8, 74)	26 (10, 85)	25 (10, 83)
	n_unique	103 (62, 127)	23 (14, 77)	20 (7, 71)	24 (9, 81)	23 (9, 80)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.05 (0, 0.26)	1 (0.88, 1)	0.08 (0.01, 0.28)	0.07 (0, 0.33)
	rate	0.075 (0.064, 0.088)	0.115 (0.094, 0.158)	0.036 (0.025, 0.051)	0.114 (0.093, 0.16)	0.115 (0.091, 0.169)
—+	graduation	0	435	481	440	416
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	12	9	17	26
	n	18 (10, 26)	6 (3, 18)	4 (2, 11)	6 (2, 16)	6 (2, 16)
	n_unique	16 (9, 25)	6 (2, 16)	4 (1, 11)	5 (2, 15)	5 (2, 15)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.3 (0.1, 0.57)	0.83 (0.5, 0.98)	0.3 (0.11, 0.55)	0.3 (0.1, 0.58)
	rate	0.075 (0.049, 0.114)	0.124 (0.076, 0.242)	0.038 (0.014, 0.081)	0.127 (0.079, 0.32)	0.127 (0.075, 0.321)
–+-	graduation	0	233	423	210	235
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	21	40	22	20
	n	69 (54, 82)	17 (8, 54)	19 (5, 61)	20 (6, 58)	17 (6, 54)
	n_unique	65 (51, 79)	16 (7, 52)	18 (5, 57)	18 (6, 55)	16 (5, 51)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.11 (0.02, 0.36)	0.99 (0.78, 1)	0.13 (0.02, 0.37)	0.14 (0.02, 0.41)
	rate	0.076 (0.062, 0.092)	0.119 (0.089, 0.188)	0.037 (0.025, 0.056)	0.118 (0.089, 0.192)	0.116 (0.091, 0.202)
–++	graduation	0	307	450	299	309
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	20	38	20	21
	n	45 (33, 55)	11 (5, 32)	13 (6, 37)	14 (4, 37)	12 (4, 35)
	n_unique	42 (31, 52)	10 (4, 31)	12 (5, 35)	13 (4, 35)	11 (4, 33)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.16 (0.04, 0.44)	0.97 (0.74, 1)	0.17 (0.04, 0.43)	0.18 (0.05, 0.45)
	rate	0.075 (0.056, 0.094)	0.122 (0.087, 0.227)	0.038 (0.023, 0.056)	0.12 (0.086, 0.218)	0.118 (0.082, 0.238)
-+–	graduation	0	429	478	434	415
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	13	9	17	26
	n	18 (10, 27)	5 (0, 16)	3 (0, 10)	7 (4, 18)	7 (3, 20)
	n_unique	17 (9, 25)	4 (0, 15)	2 (0, 9)	7 (3, 17)	7 (3, 19)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.3 (0.11, 0.53)	0.8 (0.49, 0.97)	0.26 (0.09, 0.55)	0.26 (0.1, 0.57)
	rate	0.075 (0.049, 0.114)	0.129 (0.079, 0.356)	0.038 (0.006, 0.091)	0.123 (0.079, 0.239)	0.123 (0.079, 0.238)
-+-+	graduation	0	442	486	451	429
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	12	9	16	26
	n	18 (10, 26)	5 (1, 16)	2 (0, 9)	7 (3, 19)	7 (3, 19)
	n_unique	16 (9, 25)	4 (1, 15)	2 (0, 9)	6 (3, 18)	7 (3, 17)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.32 (0.12, 0.57)	0.78 (0.47, 0.96)	0.28 (0.1, 0.56)	0.27 (0.1, 0.54)
	rate	0.076 (0.051, 0.109)	0.134 (0.076, 0.375)	0.039 (0, 0.108)	0.126 (0.081, 0.242)	0.127 (0.079, 0.259)
-++-	graduation	0	262	434	267	287
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	19	39	22	20
	n	12 (7, 17)	5 (1, 12)	2 (0, 8)	6 (2, 12)	5 (2, 12)
	n_unique	11 (6, 16)	5 (1, 11)	2 (0, 8)	5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.35 (0.15, 0.65)	0.74 (0.47, 0.93)	0.37 (0.15, 0.63)	0.33 (0.15, 0.63)
	rate	0.075 (0.045, 0.12)	0.131 (0.069, 0.391)	0.041 (0.008, 0.104)	0.12 (0.068, 0.298)	0.129 (0.071, 0.385)
-+++	graduation	0	327	457	330	338
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	18	37	20	21
	n	12 (7, 17)	5 (1, 12)	2 (0, 7)	6 (2, 12)	6 (2, 12)
	n_unique	11 (7, 16)	4 (1, 11)	2 (0, 7)	5 (2, 11)	5 (2, 12)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.36 (0.15, 0.65)	0.75 (0.44, 0.94)	0.34 (0.15, 0.63)	0.33 (0.15, 0.59)
	rate	0.076 (0.047, 0.132)	0.13 (0.07, 0.353)	0.036 (0, 0.117)	0.122 (0.071, 0.288)	0.125 (0.072, 0.294)
+—	graduation	0	105	333	81	60
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	21 (15, 27)	7 (3, 16)	10 (3, 23)	7 (3, 17)	7 (3, 16)
	n_unique	19 (13, 26)	6 (3, 15)	9 (3, 22)	7 (3, 16)	6 (3, 15)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.26 (0.11, 0.53)	0.92 (0.61, 0.99)	0.29 (0.11, 0.56)	0.28 (0.11, 0.54)
	rate	0.076 (0.052, 0.107)	0.126 (0.081, 0.263)	0.037 (0.018, 0.07)	0.12 (0.078, 0.249)	0.124 (0.075, 0.267)
+–+	graduation	0	230	403	224	207
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	3
	n	17 (11, 23)	6 (2, 14)	6 (2, 16)	6 (2, 15)	6 (2, 15)
	n_unique	16 (10, 22)	5 (2, 14)	5 (2, 16)	5 (2, 14)	5 (2, 14)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.29 (0.14, 0.56)	0.86 (0.53, 0.98)	0.31 (0.13, 0.57)	0.31 (0.13, 0.6)
	rate	0.075 (0.051, 0.115)	0.127 (0.073, 0.293)	0.037 (0.016, 0.075)	0.13 (0.072, 0.303)	0.126 (0.074, 0.337)
+-+-	graduation	0	233	423	210	235
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	21	40	22	20
	n	17 (11, 22)	6 (2, 14)	5 (2, 14)	7 (2, 15)	6 (2, 14)
	n_unique	16 (10, 21)	5 (2, 13)	5 (1, 13)	6 (2, 14)	5 (2, 14)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.32 (0.13, 0.58)	0.85 (0.54, 0.98)	0.29 (0.11, 0.59)	0.31 (0.13, 0.61)
	rate	0.076 (0.051, 0.116)	0.129 (0.071, 0.285)	0.038 (0.015, 0.08)	0.126 (0.073, 0.311)	0.125 (0.069, 0.298)
+-++	graduation	0	307	450	299	309
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	20	38	20	21
	n	17 (11, 23)	6 (2, 14)	4 (2, 13)	6 (2, 15)	6 (2, 15)
	n_unique	15 (10, 22)	5 (2, 14)	4 (1, 12)	6 (2, 14)	6 (2, 14)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.3 (0.12, 0.59)	0.84 (0.52, 0.98)	0.31 (0.13, 0.57)	0.3 (0.14, 0.61)
	rate	0.076 (0.05, 0.109)	0.129 (0.074, 0.336)	0.035 (0.014, 0.085)	0.125 (0.078, 0.299)	0.125 (0.074, 0.301)
++–	graduation	0	166	372	189	195
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	0
	n	12 (7, 16)	5 (2, 11)	3 (0, 10)	6 (2, 11)	5 (2, 12)
	n_unique	11 (6, 15)	5 (2, 10)	3 (0, 10)	5 (2, 11)	5 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.35 (0.18, 0.63)	0.76 (0.48, 0.95)	0.32 (0.14, 0.63)	0.32 (0.15, 0.62)
	rate	0.077 (0.04, 0.126)	0.123 (0.069, 0.28)	0.04 (0.011, 0.092)	0.128 (0.069, 0.291)	0.129 (0.071, 0.308)
++-+	graduation	0	271	429	283	279
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	0	0	0	3
	n	12 (7, 17)	5 (1, 11)	2 (0, 9)	5 (2, 11)	5 (2, 12)
	n_unique	11 (7, 16)	5 (1, 11)	2 (0, 8)	5 (2, 11)	5 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.36 (0.17, 0.64)	0.77 (0.47, 0.94)	0.34 (0.15, 0.63)	0.34 (0.15, 0.66)
	rate	0.079 (0.045, 0.13)	0.129 (0.068, 0.368)	0.036 (0, 0.106)	0.127 (0.07, 0.318)	0.125 (0.067, 0.267)
+++-	graduation	0	262	434	267	287
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	19	39	22	20
	n	12 (7, 17)	5 (1, 12)	2 (0, 9)	5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 11)
	n_unique	11 (7, 17)	4 (1, 11)	2 (0, 8)	5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.35 (0.17, 0.64)	0.76 (0.45, 0.96)	0.34 (0.15, 0.59)	0.32 (0.15, 0.63)
	rate	0.074 (0.044, 0.121)	0.125 (0.07, 0.358)	0.035 (0.001, 0.119)	0.125 (0.073, 0.302)	0.125 (0.072, 0.285)
++++	graduation	0	327	457	330	338
	futility	0	0	0	0	0
	max_n	0	18	37	20	21
	n	12 (8, 17)	5 (1, 12)	2 (0, 8)	5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 12)
	n_unique	11 (7, 16)	4 (1, 11)	2 (0, 7)	5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 11)
	post_p	NA (NA, NA)	0.35 (0.16, 0.64)	0.76 (0.46, 0.94)	0.34 (0.14, 0.64)	0.34 (0.16, 0.62)
	rate	0.077 (0.047, 0.126)	0.134 (0.074, 0.398)	0.036 (0, 0.107)	0.124 (0.071, 0.324)	0.13 (0.075, 0.326)

Median results over time

Signatures:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Subgroup combinations:

Posterior probabilities

Randomization probabilities

PFS rates

Median results at stop

By signature

Graduation:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Taxel_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	count	2	333
	time_stop	4 (4, 5)	14 (6, 29)
	n_trt	32 (30, 34)	86 (34, 205)
	n_control	51 (45, 57)	142 (58, 338)
	post_p	0.87 (0.86, 0.89)	1 (0.95, 1)
	order	1 (1, 1)	2 (1, 4)
TP53- & AR-	count	4	337	3	1
	time_stop	8 (7, 11)	12 (9, 25)	12 (11, 13)	11 (11, 11)
	n_trt	28 (25, 33)	32 (26, 85)	31 (27, 37)	35 (35, 35)
	n_control	32 (28, 39)	53 (35, 119)	53 (52, 61)	39 (39, 39)
	post_p	0.88 (0.85, 0.9)	0.98 (0.9, 1)	0.9 (0.89, 0.95)	0.91 (0.91, 0.91)
	order	1 (1, 1.7)	1 (1, 3)	1 (1, 1.8)	2 (2, 2)
TP53+	count		294
	time_stop		16 (9, 30)
	n_trt		51 (29, 124)
	n_control		73 (39, 160)
	post_p		1 (0.97, 1)
	order		2 (1, 4)
DRD+	count		128
	time_stop		24 (16, 33)
	n_trt		30 (25, 50)
	n_control		66 (41, 103)
	post_p		1 (0.96, 1)
	order		3 (2, 5)
TEfus+	count		250
	time_stop		18 (10, 30)
	n_trt		39 (26, 77)
	n_control		69 (33, 126)
	post_p		1 (0.96, 1)
	order		3 (1, 5)

Futility:

signature	var	Hormone_therapies	Carboplatin	Niraparib
all	count	103	81	60
	time_stop	26 (8, 35)	29 (20, 36)	29 (22, 35)
	n_trt	101 (47, 175)	124 (78, 229)	114 (83, 173)
	n_control	301 (81, 420)	329 (207, 413)	334 (229, 408)
	post_p	0 (0, 0.02)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
	order	5 (1, 9)	6 (4, 9)	6 (3.9, 10.1)
TP53- & AR-	count	400	415	392
	time_stop	17 (8, 30)	20 (13, 31)	20 (13, 31)
	n_trt	37 (26, 94)	41 (26, 101)	40 (25, 91)
	n_control	76 (32, 157)	94 (55, 158)	97 (56, 157)
	post_p	0.07 (0, 0.23)	0.06 (0, 0.21)	0.06 (0.01, 0.19)
	order	2 (1, 6)	3 (1, 6)	3 (1, 6)
TP53+	count	217	208	235
	time_stop	24 (13, 34)	24 (13, 35)	24 (15, 33)
	n_trt	50 (27, 100)	57 (28, 115)	53 (30, 93)
	n_control	119 (57, 184)	126 (63, 187)	125 (66, 178)
	post_p	0.01 (0, 0.09)	0.01 (0, 0.07)	0.01 (0, 0.08)
	order	4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 7)
DRD+	count	126	187	192
	time_stop	29 (21, 34)	26 (15, 34)	25 (15, 33)
	n_trt	39 (26, 64)	42 (28, 67)	42 (29, 59)
	n_control	83 (56, 112)	74 (42, 108)	72 (36, 104)
	post_p	0.02 (0, 0.09)	0.02 (0, 0.08)	0.02 (0, 0.09)
	order	6 (3, 9)	5 (2, 9)	4 (2, 8)
TEfus+	count	206	222	206
	time_stop	25 (17, 35)	26 (16, 35)	26 (17, 34)
	n_trt	46 (27, 82)	50 (28, 90)	48 (30, 80)
	n_control	101 (59, 150)	105 (57, 149)	103 (62, 144)
	post_p	0.01 (0, 0.07)	0.01 (0, 0.06)	0.01 (0, 0.08)
	order	5 (2, 9)	5 (2, 9)	5 (2, 9)

By subgroup combinations

Graduation:

signature	treatment	var	—-	—+	–+-	–++	-+–	-+-+	-++-	-+++	+—	+–+	+-+-	+-++	++–	++-+	+++-	++++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2	2
		time	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)	4 (4, 5)
		n	14 (13, 15)	4 (3, 4)	7 (7, 7)	2 (2, 3)	0 (0, 1)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	1 (0, 2)	2 (1, 3)	1 (1, 1)	0 (0, 1)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		post_p	0.61 (0.58, 0.64)	0.56 (0.55, 0.56)	0.54 (0.52, 0.56)	0.56 (0.55, 0.57)	0.53 (0.53, 0.53)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.52 (0.52, 0.52)	0.59 (0.53, 0.66)	0.51 (0.5, 0.51)	0.51 (0.51, 0.51)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.077 (0.073, 0.081)	0 (0, 0)	0.04 (0.008, 0.073)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	0.219 (0.219, 0.219)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)	NA (NA, NA)
	Taxel_therapies	count	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333	333
		time	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)	14 (6, 29)
		n	18 (6, 47)	4 (1, 8)	13 (4, 42)	11 (5, 24)	2 (0, 6)	2 (0, 7)	1 (0, 6)	2 (0, 5)	7 (3, 17)	5 (2, 12)	4 (2, 11)	4 (1, 10)	2 (0, 7)	1 (0, 6)	1 (0, 7)	1 (0, 5)
		post_p	0.92 (0.58, 1)	0.62 (0.52, 0.9)	0.84 (0.56, 1)	0.77 (0.55, 0.99)	0.62 (0.52, 0.89)	0.61 (0.52, 0.88)	0.61 (0.52, 0.83)	0.6 (0.52, 0.83)	0.64 (0.52, 0.97)	0.61 (0.52, 0.89)	0.6 (0.52, 0.91)	0.62 (0.52, 0.9)	0.61 (0.51, 0.87)	0.6 (0.52, 0.86)	0.61 (0.52, 0.88)	0.61 (0.51, 0.84)
		r_prob	0.11 (0.11, 0.11)	0.29 (0.29, 0.29)	0.17 (0.17, 0.17)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.033 (0, 0.059)	0.021 (0, 0.071)	0.032 (0, 0.061)	0.033 (0, 0.059)	0.014 (0, 0.075)	0 (0, 0.078)	0 (0, 0.066)	0 (0, 0.073)	0.028 (0, 0.072)	0.028 (0, 0.077)	0.029 (0, 0.077)	0.024 (0, 0.074)	0.013 (0, 0.084)	0 (0, 0.076)	0 (0, 0.064)	0 (0, 0.074)
TP53- & AR-	Hormone_therapies	count	4	4			4	4
		time	8 (7, 11)	8 (7, 11)			8 (7, 11)	8 (7, 11)
		n	22 (20, 29)	3 (3, 4)			1 (0, 1)	0 (0, 2)
		post_p	0.77 (0.72, 0.91)	0.58 (0.53, 0.61)			0.58 (0.57, 0.59)	0.55 (0.54, 0.56)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.059 (0.04, 0.075)	0 (0, 0.092)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
	Taxel_therapies	count	337	337			337	337
		time	12 (9, 25)	12 (9, 25)			12 (9, 25)	12 (9, 25)
		n	23 (16, 65)	4 (2, 12)			3 (1, 9)	3 (1, 9)
		post_p	0.92 (0.77, 1)	0.65 (0.52, 0.87)			0.6 (0.52, 0.86)	0.61 (0.52, 0.84)
		r_prob	0.11 (0.11, 0.11)	0.29 (0.29, 0.29)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.034 (0.013, 0.056)	0.031 (0, 0.073)			0 (0, 0.079)	0 (0, 0.084)
	Carboplatin	count	3	3			3	3
		time	12 (11, 13)	12 (11, 13)			12 (11, 13)	12 (11, 13)
		n	19 (15, 25)	3 (2, 5)			5 (4, 6)	3 (3, 5)
		post_p	0.85 (0.75, 0.89)	0.57 (0.54, 0.7)			0.63 (0.59, 0.75)	0.66 (0.62, 0.69)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.055 (0.023, 0.061)	0 (0, 0)			0.038 (0.008, 0.053)	0.064 (0.048, 0.092)
	Niraparib	count	1	1			1	1
		time	11 (11, 11)	11 (11, 11)			11 (11, 11)	11 (11, 11)
		n	16 (16, 16)	1 (1, 1)			13 (13, 13)	5 (5, 5)
		post_p	0.73 (0.73, 0.73)	0.59 (0.59, 0.59)			0.72 (0.72, 0.72)	0.58 (0.58, 0.58)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.069 (0.069, 0.069)	0 (0, 0)			0.085 (0.085, 0.085)	0.049 (0.049, 0.049)
TP53+	Taxel_therapies	count			294	294			294	294			294	294			294	294
		time			16 (9, 30)	16 (9, 30)			16 (9, 30)	16 (9, 30)			16 (9, 30)	16 (9, 30)			16 (9, 30)	16 (9, 30)
		n			19 (8, 47)	14 (7, 30)			2 (0, 7)	2 (0, 6)			5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 12)			2 (0, 7)	2 (0, 7)
		post_p			0.93 (0.72, 1)	0.86 (0.72, 0.99)			0.61 (0.52, 0.85)	0.63 (0.52, 0.86)			0.71 (0.53, 0.92)	0.67 (0.52, 0.92)			0.65 (0.52, 0.88)	0.64 (0.52, 0.85)
		r_prob			0.17 (0.17, 0.17)	0.41 (0.41, 0.41)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.37 (0.37, 0.37)	0.37 (0.37, 0.37)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.034 (0.01, 0.053)	0.033 (0.014, 0.058)			0 (0, 0.079)	0 (0, 0.079)			0.031 (0, 0.075)	0.03 (0, 0.069)			0 (0, 0.069)	0 (0, 0.072)
DRD+		count					128	128	128	128					128	128	128	128
		time					24 (16, 33)	24 (16, 33)	24 (16, 33)	24 (16, 33)					24 (16, 33)	24 (16, 33)	24 (16, 33)	24 (16, 33)
		n					4 (1, 12)	4 (1, 11)	3 (0, 8)	3 (1, 7)					4 (2, 9)	4 (1, 9)	4 (0, 9)	3 (0, 8)
		post_p					0.76 (0.54, 0.95)	0.74 (0.55, 0.94)	0.69 (0.54, 0.9)	0.68 (0.54, 0.88)					0.71 (0.52, 0.9)	0.7 (0.53, 0.92)	0.74 (0.55, 0.92)	0.73 (0.53, 0.92)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.032 (0, 0.086)	0.032 (0, 0.08)	0.031 (0, 0.08)	0.03 (0, 0.085)					0.031 (0, 0.086)	0.03 (0, 0.077)	0.027 (0, 0.065)	0.03 (0, 0.093)
TEfus+		count		250		250		250		250		250		250		250		250
		time		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)		18 (10, 30)
		n		4 (2, 10)		14 (8, 27)		3 (1, 8)		2 (0, 5)		5 (3, 13)		5 (2, 10)		2 (0, 6)		2 (0, 5)
		post_p		0.71 (0.54, 0.91)		0.87 (0.71, 0.99)		0.67 (0.52, 0.9)		0.63 (0.53, 0.83)		0.72 (0.52, 0.92)		0.7 (0.53, 0.9)		0.62 (0.52, 0.86)		0.62 (0.52, 0.82)
		r_prob		0.29 (0.29, 0.29)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.41 (0.41, 0.41)		0.37 (0.37, 0.37)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.031 (0, 0.074)		0.034 (0.015, 0.056)		0.021 (0, 0.081)		0 (0, 0.074)		0.033 (0, 0.071)		0.031 (0, 0.067)		0 (0, 0.078)		0 (0, 0.085)

Futility:

signature	treatment	var	—-	—+	–+-	–++	-+–	-+-+	-++-	-+++	+—	+–+	+-+-	+-++	++–	++-+	+++-	++++
all	Hormone_therapies	count	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103	103
		time	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)	26 (8, 35)
		n	22 (13, 59)	5 (2, 11)	12 (6, 37)	6 (3, 17)	4 (0, 11)	4 (0, 10)	3 (0, 8)	3 (0, 7)	4 (1, 12)	4 (1, 8)	4 (1, 9)	3 (1, 9)	3 (0, 8)	3 (0, 9)	2 (0, 8)	3 (0, 6)
		post_p	0.12 (0.01, 0.42)	0.3 (0.12, 0.46)	0.17 (0.04, 0.41)	0.22 (0.07, 0.44)	0.36 (0.13, 0.48)	0.33 (0.18, 0.45)	0.34 (0.21, 0.46)	0.35 (0.16, 0.46)	0.28 (0.14, 0.44)	0.38 (0.18, 0.48)	0.33 (0.17, 0.47)	0.34 (0.16, 0.48)	0.36 (0.21, 0.47)	0.34 (0.2, 0.46)	0.36 (0.2, 0.48)	0.34 (0.18, 0.46)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.115 (0.093, 0.157)	0.132 (0.078, 0.283)	0.12 (0.085, 0.223)	0.135 (0.091, 0.296)	0.133 (0.083, 0.298)	0.156 (0.091, 0.471)	0.178 (0.095, 0.629)	0.144 (0.095, 0.461)	0.14 (0.09, 0.329)	0.131 (0.069, 0.295)	0.143 (0.07, 0.409)	0.141 (0.082, 0.449)	0.148 (0.095, 0.428)	0.156 (0.076, 0.562)	0.146 (0.089, 0.566)	0.194 (0.103, 0.532)
	Carboplatin	count	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81	81
		time	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)	29 (20, 36)
		n	21 (9, 57)	4 (2, 12)	14 (6, 52)	8 (3, 28)	7 (3, 12)	6 (3, 13)	4 (2, 9)	4 (1, 11)	5 (2, 12)	5 (2, 12)	4 (1, 10)	5 (2, 13)	4 (2, 8)	5 (2, 9)	4 (2, 10)	4 (1, 8)
		post_p	0.12 (0.01, 0.36)	0.32 (0.1, 0.47)	0.17 (0.04, 0.44)	0.22 (0.04, 0.43)	0.28 (0.1, 0.46)	0.29 (0.11, 0.45)	0.34 (0.17, 0.45)	0.33 (0.15, 0.45)	0.31 (0.14, 0.45)	0.32 (0.18, 0.47)	0.32 (0.15, 0.45)	0.35 (0.14, 0.45)	0.31 (0.2, 0.44)	0.36 (0.21, 0.48)	0.36 (0.15, 0.48)	0.34 (0.15, 0.45)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.114 (0.084, 0.158)	0.14 (0.087, 0.329)	0.119 (0.09, 0.189)	0.134 (0.09, 0.251)	0.131 (0.084, 0.27)	0.133 (0.088, 0.31)	0.135 (0.094, 0.44)	0.15 (0.091, 0.459)	0.137 (0.092, 0.303)	0.121 (0.08, 0.265)	0.17 (0.093, 0.909)	0.126 (0.083, 0.324)	0.154 (0.087, 0.297)	0.134 (0.077, 0.462)	0.127 (0.081, 0.274)	0.144 (0.097, 0.328)
	Niraparib	count	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60	60
		time	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)	29 (22, 35)
		n	18 (9, 49)	5 (2, 12)	12 (6, 36)	8 (3, 25)	6 (4, 14)	6 (3, 11)	4 (1, 7)	4 (2, 8)	5 (2, 9)	4 (1, 9)	4 (2, 8)	5 (1, 9)	4 (2, 8)	4 (2, 7)	4 (2, 9)	4 (1, 7)
		post_p	0.09 (0.01, 0.36)	0.31 (0.12, 0.45)	0.18 (0.05, 0.39)	0.24 (0.09, 0.41)	0.26 (0.11, 0.42)	0.28 (0.11, 0.42)	0.32 (0.14, 0.44)	0.34 (0.17, 0.47)	0.33 (0.17, 0.47)	0.32 (0.18, 0.45)	0.32 (0.17, 0.47)	0.35 (0.19, 0.46)	0.32 (0.17, 0.45)	0.35 (0.18, 0.47)	0.35 (0.2, 0.48)	0.37 (0.17, 0.46)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.122 (0.092, 0.198)	0.137 (0.096, 0.314)	0.118 (0.091, 0.213)	0.122 (0.088, 0.249)	0.135 (0.094, 0.218)	0.143 (0.096, 0.313)	0.166 (0.08, 0.44)	0.134 (0.08, 0.262)	0.123 (0.088, 0.325)	0.176 (0.089, 0.596)	0.148 (0.077, 0.314)	0.13 (0.082, 0.258)	0.161 (0.1, 0.352)	0.149 (0.081, 0.342)	0.12 (0.08, 0.241)	0.153 (0.102, 0.404)
TP53- & AR-	Hormone_therapies	count	400	400			400	400
		time	17 (8, 30)	17 (8, 30)			17 (8, 30)	17 (8, 30)
		n	23 (15, 59)	6 (3, 14)			4 (0, 14)	4 (1, 13)
		post_p	0.17 (0.02, 0.41)	0.37 (0.18, 0.48)			0.41 (0.19, 0.48)	0.41 (0.2, 0.48)
		r_prob	0.44 (0.44, 0.44)	0.35 (0.35, 0.35)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate	0.115 (0.088, 0.155)	0.123 (0.076, 0.258)			0.138 (0.081, 0.447)	0.145 (0.087, 0.407)
	Carboplatin	count	415	415			415	415
		time	20 (13, 31)	20 (13, 31)			20 (13, 31)	20 (13, 31)
		n	22 (9, 65)	5 (2, 13)			7 (3, 14)	6 (3, 15)
		post_p	0.22 (0.03, 0.45)	0.38 (0.17, 0.48)			0.36 (0.15, 0.47)	0.35 (0.15, 0.48)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.112 (0.084, 0.172)	0.139 (0.084, 0.373)			0.123 (0.081, 0.256)	0.13 (0.079, 0.256)
	Niraparib	count	392	392			392	392
		time	20 (13, 31)	20 (13, 31)			20 (13, 31)	20 (13, 31)
		n	21 (10, 57)	5 (2, 12)			7 (3, 15)	6 (3, 15)
		post_p	0.2 (0.04, 0.44)	0.39 (0.16, 0.49)			0.36 (0.16, 0.48)	0.36 (0.15, 0.48)
		r_prob	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate	0.113 (0.085, 0.176)	0.133 (0.084, 0.371)			0.126 (0.081, 0.242)	0.129 (0.083, 0.28)
TP53+	Hormone_therapies	count			217	217			217	217			217	217			217	217
		time			24 (13, 34)	24 (13, 34)			24 (13, 34)	24 (13, 34)			24 (13, 34)	24 (13, 34)			24 (13, 34)	24 (13, 34)
		n			14 (8, 40)	8 (4, 22)			3 (1, 8)	3 (1, 8)			4 (2, 11)	5 (2, 11)			3 (1, 9)	3 (1, 8)
		post_p			0.16 (0.05, 0.41)	0.24 (0.06, 0.45)			0.38 (0.22, 0.48)	0.37 (0.19, 0.48)			0.37 (0.17, 0.48)	0.35 (0.17, 0.48)			0.4 (0.2, 0.48)	0.38 (0.22, 0.48)
		r_prob			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.18 (0.18, 0.18)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)			0.12 (0.12, 0.12)	0.12 (0.12, 0.12)			0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate			0.12 (0.086, 0.188)	0.125 (0.084, 0.249)			0.15 (0.085, 0.476)	0.15 (0.084, 0.479)			0.135 (0.073, 0.335)	0.132 (0.081, 0.424)			0.138 (0.077, 0.426)	0.148 (0.085, 0.483)
	Carboplatin	count			208	208			208	208			208	208			208	208
		time			24 (13, 35)	24 (13, 35)			24 (13, 35)	24 (13, 35)			24 (13, 35)	24 (13, 35)			24 (13, 35)	24 (13, 35)
		n			13 (6, 46)	9 (3, 29)			4 (2, 9)	4 (1, 10)			4 (1, 10)	5 (2, 12)			4 (2, 10)	4 (1, 9)
		post_p			0.21 (0.05, 0.45)	0.24 (0.07, 0.46)			0.37 (0.2, 0.47)	0.36 (0.18, 0.48)			0.34 (0.14, 0.48)	0.36 (0.15, 0.47)			0.36 (0.18, 0.48)	0.39 (0.19, 0.48)
		r_prob			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)			0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate			0.118 (0.086, 0.203)	0.125 (0.086, 0.25)			0.135 (0.086, 0.33)	0.136 (0.083, 0.4)			0.15 (0.086, 0.378)	0.138 (0.081, 0.396)			0.136 (0.079, 0.425)	0.137 (0.085, 0.334)
	Niraparib	count			235	235			235	235			235	235			235	235
		time			24 (15, 33)	24 (15, 33)			24 (15, 33)	24 (15, 33)			24 (15, 33)	24 (15, 33)			24 (15, 33)	24 (15, 33)
		n			13 (5, 35)	8 (4, 26)			4 (1, 9)	4 (2, 9)			4 (1, 10)	4 (2, 11)			4 (2, 9)	4 (2, 8)
		post_p			0.21 (0.04, 0.44)	0.26 (0.08, 0.46)			0.35 (0.17, 0.47)	0.37 (0.18, 0.48)			0.37 (0.2, 0.48)	0.35 (0.17, 0.47)			0.37 (0.18, 0.48)	0.37 (0.19, 0.47)
		r_prob			0.08 (0.08, 0.08)	0 (0, 0)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)			0.06 (0.06, 0.06)	0.06 (0.06, 0.06)			0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate			0.118 (0.085, 0.245)	0.124 (0.089, 0.237)			0.154 (0.084, 0.46)	0.135 (0.08, 0.351)			0.136 (0.081, 0.364)	0.141 (0.089, 0.361)			0.136 (0.081, 0.319)	0.147 (0.083, 0.43)
DRD+	Hormone_therapies	count					126	126	126	126					126	126	126	126
		time					29 (21, 34)	29 (21, 34)	29 (21, 34)	29 (21, 34)					29 (21, 34)	29 (21, 34)	29 (21, 34)	29 (21, 34)
		n					5 (1, 14)	5 (1, 14)	4 (1, 10)	4 (1, 10)					4 (2, 9)	4 (1, 10)	4 (1, 9)	3 (1, 8)
		post_p					0.36 (0.16, 0.47)	0.32 (0.14, 0.47)	0.38 (0.21, 0.48)	0.36 (0.18, 0.48)					0.37 (0.2, 0.48)	0.35 (0.19, 0.47)	0.36 (0.19, 0.48)	0.35 (0.17, 0.48)
		r_prob					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)					0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)	0 (0, 0)
		rate					0.128 (0.082, 0.298)	0.144 (0.087, 0.379)	0.135 (0.082, 0.522)	0.141 (0.09, 0.397)					0.134 (0.084, 0.281)	0.152 (0.084, 0.457)	0.139 (0.087, 0.364)	0.15 (0.088, 0.562)
	Carboplatin	count					187	187	187	187					187	187	187	187
		time					26 (15, 34)	26 (15, 34)	26 (15, 34)	26 (15, 34)					26 (15, 34)	26 (15, 34)	26 (15, 34)	26 (15, 34)
		n					7 (3, 14)	7 (3, 14)	4 (2, 10)	4 (1, 10)					4 (2, 8)	4 (2, 9)	4 (1, 9)	4 (2, 9)
		post_p					0.33 (0.11, 0.48)	0.33 (0.12, 0.48)	0.37 (0.18, 0.48)	0.36 (0.2, 0.47)					0.35 (0.2, 0.47)	0.36 (0.19, 0.48)	0.38 (0.15, 0.48)	0.36 (0.15, 0.48)
		r_prob					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate					0.128 (0.087, 0.245)	0.127 (0.084, 0.257)	0.125 (0.079, 0.327)	0.141 (0.084, 0.417)					0.136 (0.078, 0.333)	0.145 (0.076, 0.365)	0.135 (0.081, 0.464)	0.143 (0.088, 0.38)
	Niraparib	count					192	192	192	192					192	192	192	192
		time					25 (15, 33)	25 (15, 33)	25 (15, 33)	25 (15, 33)					25 (15, 33)	25 (15, 33)	25 (15, 33)	25 (15, 33)
		n					7 (3, 14)	6 (3, 14)	4 (1, 9)	4 (2, 8)					4 (2, 8)	4 (2, 9)	4 (2, 9)	4 (2, 8)
		post_p					0.32 (0.13, 0.46)	0.32 (0.13, 0.47)	0.37 (0.16, 0.47)	0.37 (0.2, 0.47)					0.37 (0.2, 0.48)	0.38 (0.17, 0.48)	0.38 (0.2, 0.48)	0.37 (0.19, 0.47)
		r_prob					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)					0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)	0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate					0.137 (0.089, 0.267)	0.131 (0.094, 0.262)	0.147 (0.083, 0.435)	0.135 (0.082, 0.376)					0.142 (0.075, 0.342)	0.145 (0.083, 0.356)	0.14 (0.078, 0.327)	0.145 (0.087, 0.395)
TEfus+	Hormone_therapies	count		206		206		206		206		206		206		206		206
		time		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)		25 (17, 35)
		n		6 (3, 16)		9 (5, 25)		4 (1, 12)		4 (1, 9)		5 (2, 11)		5 (2, 11)		4 (1, 10)		3 (1, 9)
		post_p		0.3 (0.13, 0.46)		0.23 (0.08, 0.45)		0.35 (0.17, 0.47)		0.37 (0.18, 0.47)		0.34 (0.16, 0.48)		0.35 (0.16, 0.46)		0.4 (0.21, 0.48)		0.35 (0.2, 0.47)
		r_prob		0.35 (0.35, 0.35)		0.18 (0.18, 0.18)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.18 (0.18, 0.18)		0.12 (0.12, 0.12)		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)
		rate		0.126 (0.081, 0.265)		0.127 (0.083, 0.248)		0.15 (0.091, 0.381)		0.145 (0.078, 0.466)		0.126 (0.079, 0.295)		0.135 (0.084, 0.336)		0.145 (0.084, 0.458)		0.158 (0.094, 0.458)
	Carboplatin	count		222		222		222		222		222		222		222		222
		time		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)		26 (16, 35)
		n		5 (2, 13)		10 (3, 29)		6 (3, 14)		4 (2, 10)		5 (2, 11)		5 (2, 12)		5 (2, 9)		4 (2, 10)
		post_p		0.34 (0.14, 0.46)		0.25 (0.06, 0.47)		0.31 (0.14, 0.46)		0.38 (0.19, 0.47)		0.37 (0.16, 0.48)		0.35 (0.15, 0.48)		0.37 (0.23, 0.48)		0.38 (0.18, 0.47)
		r_prob		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0 (0, 0)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate		0.139 (0.089, 0.326)		0.128 (0.085, 0.227)		0.129 (0.082, 0.265)		0.141 (0.079, 0.373)		0.146 (0.081, 0.384)		0.135 (0.08, 0.373)		0.134 (0.079, 0.399)		0.142 (0.085, 0.331)
	Niraparib	count		206		206		206		206		206		206		206		206
		time		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)		26 (17, 34)
		n		5 (2, 12)		9 (3, 28)		6 (3, 14)		4 (2, 8)		4 (1, 10)		4 (2, 11)		4 (2, 9)		4 (1, 9)
		post_p		0.34 (0.13, 0.48)		0.27 (0.09, 0.46)		0.31 (0.12, 0.48)		0.36 (0.17, 0.48)		0.36 (0.17, 0.47)		0.35 (0.15, 0.47)		0.37 (0.18, 0.48)		0.38 (0.19, 0.48)
		r_prob		0 (0, 0)		0 (0, 0)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0 (0, 0)		0.06 (0.06, 0.06)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)		0.33 (0.33, 0.33)
		rate		0.139 (0.088, 0.33)		0.122 (0.081, 0.278)		0.131 (0.079, 0.3)		0.142 (0.079, 0.32)		0.149 (0.086, 0.405)		0.137 (0.084, 0.355)		0.141 (0.083, 0.318)		0.144 (0.087, 0.398)